by Susan Rosenbluth,
Editor, Jewish Voice and Opinion

November 2008

In the end, it was the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas Party that convinced Kadima leader Tzipi Livni that she would not be able to form a government and that the country would have to face new elections after two tumultuous years.

Ms. Livni was thrust into the position of either managing to form a government or having to call for new elections, after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was forced to resign his position. His resignation paved the way for a Kadima primary, which she won.

That was the easy part. Finding 61 MKs to join her government has been more difficult. Shas, in particular, with its 12 seats was a group she needed, but they had two demands: sufficient money from the budget to be used as grants for large families, and a promise that in negotiations with the Palestinians, the unity of Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty would be sacrosanct.

While Ms. Livni managed to come up with a little over NIS 700 million ($183 million) for the grants, the rabbis said that would not begin to cover their constituents’ needs. She would have had to offer closer to NIS 1.5 billion (almost $400 million).

On the issue of Jerusalem, Ms. Livni simply refused. She demanded the leeway to divide the city, and Shas would not be part of that kind of government.

On Thurs, Oct 16, Deputy Prime Minister Eli Yishai, the chairman of Shas, met with Ms. Livni for an extended four-hour session. Shas demanded that Ms. Livni provide either a written or publicly delivered oral commitment that there would be no negotiations over Jerusalem.

"We want to get a clear commitment from Livni that she does not intend to raise the subject at all during negotiations with the PA," said Mr. Yishai.

Ms. Livni said the commitment was out of the question. "No American President would return a call from any Israeli prime minister who signed such a letter," said Kadima negotiator Yisrael Maimon.

Shas’s demands were rougher for Ms. Livni than they had been when the party joined the Kadima government under Mr. Olmert in 2006. At that time, Mr. Yishai demanded only a commitment to be released from coalition discipline if votes were held to relinquish land.

Mr. Olmert agreed that Shas would only have to vote on a so-called "shelf agreement," which would permit items that have been negotiated to be "put on a shelf" to be implemented at a later date. That way, even if the issue of Jerusalem were raised, Shas would not be voting to divide the city.

Now Mr. Yishai said he realizes that the PA leadership under Mahmoud Abbas is not a partner for peace, and he will not agree to sign any "shelf agreements."

Ms. Livni tried to get the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party to join her government, but the UTJ rabbis would not enter a left-wing coalition without at least one other religious party. According to UTJ chairman Yaakov Litzman, his party’s stipulations for joining the coalition were "identical" to those of Shas. Therefore, he said, if UTJ could be persuaded to join the coalition, so could Shas.

Ms. Livni evidently considered trying to form a coalition that would include the far-left wing Meretz Party and the Arab parties, but Kadima MK Zev Elkin warned that more than a few Kadima MKs, especially those that came to the party from the more nationalist Likud, would oppose such a move.

"If Livni forms a government with only the Left, it will have no right to exist," he said.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of the Likud Party, categorically rejected Ms. Livni’s appeals to form a national unity government.

No one welcomed Shas’s tenacity on the issue of Jerusalem more than Mr. Netanyahu. When it became obvious that Shas intended to stick to its word, Likud MK Yuval Shteinitz officially welcomed the Sephardic party "back into the nationalist camp."

"The Shas leadership has returned to its senses and understands that Jerusalem cannot be sold for a pot of lentils of coalition-promise monies," he said.

Mr. Shteinitz said he had long been puzzled watching Shas and Ms. Livni negotiate because "it’s clear that enabling Livni to become prime minister means dividing Jerusalem and giving away the Old City and the Temple Mount."

"If Shas were to join with Livni, they would never again be able to pray sincerely: ‘If I forget thee, Jerusalem, let my right hand forget its cunning,’" he said.

Mr. Shteinitz said Shas would be guaranteed "a place of honor" in the nationalist government that most observers expect Mr. Netanyahu to form after the next election.

Veteran Likud MK and former Knesset Speaker Ruby Rivlin said the Shas decision not to join Ms. Livni merited a "She-hecheyanu" blessing. "The voters of Shas are even more right-wing than the Likud," he said.

Some on the Left accused Shas and Mr. Netanyahu of forging a secret deal in order to torpedo Ms. Livni’s efforts. Both Shas and the Likud denied the charges.

Kadima MK Yochana Plesner speculated that the "irresponsible and empty promises Shas received from Netanyahu were more appealing" than anything Ms. Livni had to offer.

"The public will have to decide if it wants a responsible, public-minded leadership, or Netanyahu—who is willing to give up all his economic principles for the sake of attaining power."

In fact, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, Israel’s former chief rabbi and Shas’s spiritual advisor, said it was he who told Mr. Yishai to end discussions on joining Ms. Livni, not because of the grant money, on which they might have been able to forge a compromise, but because she refused to state definitively her position on the status of the capital.

It was Mr. Netanyahu, serving as Finance Minister from 2003-2005, who drastically cut back the monthly child allowance for large families that Shas is now demanding be reinstated.

According to some reports, Ms. Livni even offered Shas more power in religious court matters, but that did not override the party’s concern for Jerusalem.

Shas is not the only party now in Mr. Netanyahu’s camp. They will also be joined by the immigrants’ Yisrael Beiteinu, Israel Our Home, led by the right-wing but unpredictable Avigdor Lieberman.

On Mon, Oct 27, after being informed by Ms. Livni that she could not form a government, Israeli President Shimon Peres dissolved the Knesset.

After a 90-day Knesset winter session, Israelis will go to the polls on Feb 10.

Speaking to the Knesset, Mr. Netanyahu took credit for his economic reforms that he said have allowed Israel, thus far, to weather the economic crisis that has affected much of the world.

"The actions we took have lowered unemployment and lowered out national overdraft, leaving us the ability to now deal with important things, including, if we have to, the guarantee of citizens’ long-term savings," he said.

He promised that, if elected, he would invite Ms. Livni and Mr. Barak to join a national unity government, headed by Likud.

He said that in future negotiations with the PA, "we will not return to the ’67 borders." He also negated the Palestinians’ so-called "right of return" which would allow millions of refugees and their descendants to return to Israel proper. It is usually considered a way for the Palestinians to destroy Israel without bloodshed.

"We will retain the Golan and the Jordan Valley, and we will have defensible borders. In addition, no Palestinian refugee will enter Israel, because no country ever negotiates its own destruction. Neither will we negotiate Jerusalem, our 3,000-year-old capital," he said.

Mr. Netanyahu’s words prompted Dr. Benny Begin, the son of the late Prime Minister Menachem Begin, to leave his job as head of Israel’s Geological Institute and once more enter the Israeli political arena. He announced that he will run in the Likud primary to vie for a spot on the party’s list of Knesset candidates for the upcoming elections.

Dr. Begin was also influenced by Mr. Rivlin, his upstairs neighbor in an apartment complex in Jerusalem. In one week, Dr. Begin and Mr. Netanyahu met three times in Mr. Rivlin’s home.

"I realized that Benny wanted to return to a position of influence, so I asked Bibi [Netanyahu] whether he wanted him and he said he would be honored if he returned. When they met, they brought up every aggravation one had against the other in their mutual history, and then they were ready to work together again," said Mr. Rivlin.

A veteran hawk on diplomatic and security issues, Dr. Begin received promises from Mr. Netanyahu that he would neither divide Jerusalem nor return the country to pre-1967 borders.

A geologist, Dr. Begin, who was a three-term Likud MK from 1988-1999, served briefly as Minister of Science under Mr. Netanyahu was he was prime minister. In late 1998, he resigned from the Likud to protest Mr. Netanyahu’s acceptance of the Wye Agreement.

Dr, Begin then tried unsuccessfully to reinvigorate the Heirut (Freedom) party in order to run for prime minister. Heirut, the forerunner of the Likud, was the movement long headed by his father.

When Heirut received only four seats in the election, Dr, Begin resigned from politics. "I am a public figure without a public," he said at the time.

Had the PA fulfilled its part of the agreement, the Wye Agreement, signed under the auspices of President Bill Clinton, would have compelled Israel to relinquish a great deal of land in Judea and Samaria. As Mr. Netanyahu said at the time, because they [the PA] did not give, they did not get.

Known in Israel for his impeccable character, Dr. Begin has always promoted Jewish sovereignty over Judea and Samaria while calling for a liberal domestic agenda.

The Likud’s faction whip, MK Gideon Saar, said Dr. Begin "will be a tremendous addition."

"He is a symbol of values, ideology, clean hands, and clear thinking," he said.

Another "star" who will run on the Likud list will be former Chief IDF Spokesperson Miri Regev, who earned praise for her calm demeanor during the 2005 "disengagement" from Gaza, which saw 10,000 Jewish men, women, and children expelled from their homes, businesses, and schools.

Four other public figures who are reportedly leaning towards joining Likud to run for office are former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe (Bugi) Yaalon, former MK Dan Meridor, former MK Uzi Landau, who served under Mr. Netanyahu as Public Security Minister, and current National Religious Party/National Union MK Effi Eitam.

Mr. Yaalon, who is known for holding pro-Land-of-Israel views, is reportedly being warmly welcomed back to the Likud and will probably have a spot reserved on the Likud list so that he will not have to run in the primary.

Mr. Meridor, on the other hand, quit the Likud in 1999 and joined the left-wing Center Party. Because he then sharply criticized his former faction in the 1999 elections, he probably will not have a reserved spot. It is unlikely that Mr. Meridor would be interested in competing for one.

Dr. Begin declined Mr. Netanyahu’s offer of a reserved slot, choosing to compete for his seat in the open primary. Sources close to Mr. Netanyahu said they are pleased that Dr. Begin will set a precedent of running for Knesset without asking for a reserved slot.

Mr. Netanyahu is also pressing former minister Natan Sharansky to return to politics. While it is extremely unlikely that he would run for a Knesset seat, he might agree to serve in Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet.

For her part, Ms. Livni intends to base her campaign on her clean image in an era of political corruption. She will probably argue that of all the candidates, only she can restore the public’s confidence in government.

New elections will probably end the possibility of US President George Bush squeezing out any kind of agreement, let alone a final one, between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Just after elections were called, Kadima under Ms. Livni was ahead of Likud in the polls by between 1-3 seats. A week later, all polls showed Likud ahead by the same margin. If the election were held now, Likud would receive 25-26 seats, Kadima 22-23 seats, and Labor between 16 and 17.

In the current Knesset, Kadima has 29, Labor 19, and Likud 12. Shas, which currently has 11 seats, may drop one seat according to the polls.

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